French elections 2017: Polls and odds tracker

  • For those who have lost faith in political polling, asking people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is the best way to predict elections.
  • According to Coral, the odds for the next French President are:

    Marine Le Pen achieved her highest vote shares in the North East of France when she failed to make the second round in 2012.

  • Le Pen attracted her highest vote share in the department of Aisne, to the North East of Paris.
  • However, support for Le Pen within Paris was conspicuous by its absence.
  • Three days on from a terror attack in the capital that claimed the life of a police officer, it makes Paris one of just four areas of the country where Front National support fell compared to 2012.

The race to win the French presidential election has entered its final days with Emmanuel Macron and Marine Le Pen both vying to win over the electorate as voters prepare to head to the polls.

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The two candidates will face off in the second round on May 7, where Macron is widely tipped to become the president of France.

According to recent polling by Elabe, he would take 65 per cent of the vote in a second-round run-off against Le Pen. 

It is expected that Macron – a centrist – should be able to attract a wider spectrum of second-round voters than Le Pen, pulling in left-leaning voters from Hamon and Mélenchon as well as those leaning to the right that voted Fillon in the first round.

A word of caution: just because a candidate won the first round, it doesn’t mean that they’re going to win the presidency.

Candidates are pitted against each other twice in the election, with the first round of the vote taking place on April 23.

Of the nine elections since the first direct presidential election in the Fifth Republic in 1965, three have seen the winner of the first round lose out in the second. This led to the elections of Valéry Giscard d’Estaing in 1974, François Mitterrand in 1981 and Jacques Chirac in 1995.

For those who have lost faith in political polling, asking people who are prepared to put their money where their mouth is the best way to predict elections.

After Brexit, the election of Donald Trump and the 2015 General Election, many now believe that political betting markets can better predict elections, relying on the wisdom of a crowd of punters to sort and weigh all the probabilities.

According to Coral, the odds for the next French President are:

Marine Le Pen achieved her highest vote shares in the North East of France when she failed to make the second round in 2012.

It was no different this time around with there being a clear East-West divide in the way that the country voted on Sunday.

Le Pen attracted her highest vote share in the department of Aisne, to the North East of Paris. More than one in three votes went to the Front National leader in Aisne – double the number that went to Macron.

However, support for Le Pen within Paris was conspicuous by its absence. Fewer than one in 20 voters cast their ballots for the far-right leader. This is a lower proportion than who did so in 2012. 

Three days on from a terror attack in the capital that claimed the life of a police officer, it makes Paris one of just four areas of the country where Front National support fell compared to 2012.

French elections 2017: Polls and odds tracker